Long range (up to 15 day) weather forecast for Oxford area with optional optimistic and pessimistic forecasts.

Mouseover the diff$removebit=''; $replbit="";erent buttons to see the different forecast alternatives

Ensemble forecasts basically work by running a weather model many different times (in this case 20) with small changes to the starting conditions to reflect the inherent errors in weather data used to drive the models. Because of the chaotic nature of weather systems, these small changes become amplified over time giving many different possible outcomes which give a statistical basis for the weather forecast.

This page gives a basic view of the latest forecast ensemble for a variety of locations. For each time step it gives the average, highest, lowest and standard deviation spread of the different weather parameters from the 20 different weather model runs. You can look at the average of the ensemble which gives good guidance, or choose your forecast based on how optimistic or pessimistic you feel! These forecasts are from real live weather forecast data which is widely used around the globe but I accept no liability if it rains at your garden party...

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